| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Wind erosion is a dominant type of degradation on agricultural land. The wind acts as the main driving forces behind the land’s susceptibility to wind erosion, whereas factors that contribute to resistance from wind erosion are the presence of vegetation and soil erodibility. Climate indicators, such as air temperature and precipitation, are particularly important in the times of global climate changes because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion.The research was conducted in the autonomous province (AP) of Vojvodina, an important economic region of the Republic of Serbia, characterized by flat relief, low forest cover, and intensive agricultural production. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land’s susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The factors that were used for this analysis are: Climate Factor (CF), vegetation cover and soil erodibility (EF). The Climate Factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: historical (1971-2000), near future (2011-2040), mid-twenty-first century (2041-2070), and late twenty-first century (2071-2100). The research data were extracted for eleven different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and Global Climate Models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The considered emission scenario was RCP8.5. Due to the models’ systematic error over the historical period, we bias-adjusted multi-model ensemble results using the gridded climatological dataset CARPATCLIM (Climate of the Carpathian Region). Vegetation coverage map was retrieved using the Landsat 7 scenes based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, while the soil erodibility map was generated based on the soil samples’ network using the Empirical Bayesian Kriging method. The land susceptibility to wind erosion is generally higher during the months of the non-growing season due to a higher wind speed and the absence of protective vegetation cover in the large parts of the study area. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in the precipitation. On the other hand, in the late 21st century the non-growing season will be characterized by an increase of temperature as well as by an increase in precipitation. The land susceptibility to wind erosion for non-growing season is likely decrease. However, as result of climate change in future, the hot-spot zones for the non-growing period will shift towards the central part of the research area as the 21st century draws to a conclusion. The land susceptibility to wind erosion (considering climate conditions, but also the factors of vegetation and soil erodibility) during the growing season will slightly increase despite significant negative changes of the climate factor in the late 21st century. The vegetation cover plays a significant protective role during the growing season in shielding the soil from the wind erosion, thus mitigating the effects of the increased climate factor.The future changes of the climate indicators will point out at possible changes in land susceptibility to wind erosion in the area of research. This knowledge has the potential to help the regional decision-makers to determine and develop management patterns aimed at mitigation and adaption to climate changes. |
