| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Soil erosion is a complex process with adverse environmental impacts. Today, on a global scale, by modeling the effects of natural and human factors on the severity of soil erosion, it is possible to determine the main drivers of ecosystems, for effective policy-making in optimal soil management. Therefore to assess the severity of soil erosion in Iran watersheds, the validated data set of the Global Soil Erosion Modeling project (GloSEM database) were used. Our project includes baseline scenario (2015) and future forecasts (2070) of soil erosion with the effects of climate change in three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on rainfall erosivity factor (R) and the effects of land use change in three combined scenarios SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 on vegetation (C) and soil protection (P) factors. The outcomes showed that the vulnerability of central, southern, and eastern watersheds due to climate change and land use change was higher than other watersheds. In these areas, even without considering the effects of climate change, the trend of soil erosion changes in the baseline scenario (2015) in comparison with SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios has been increasing, but declining in humid or semi-humid areas in northern and western watersheds. Considering the combined effects of land use and climate change, the trend of soil erosion changes between the baseline scenario (2015) compared with the scenarios of SSP1-RCP2.6 (with an average increase of 184%), SSP2-RCP4.5 (with an average increase of 243%) and SSP5- RCP8.5 (with an average increase of 341%) has been increasing in all watersheds except Aras watershed. The results indicate a vulnerability of more than 10 times in the central watersheds of Iran due to climate and land use changes by 2070. |
