| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Torrential floods are one of the most destructive events causing serious economic damages, loss of lives, and ecological problems. They occur in occasional, periodic, or permanent watercourses associated with intensive erosion processes. The area of Grdelica gorge and Vranjska valley was one of the most affected areas by torrential floods in the Republic of Serbia in the past. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of torrential flood occurrence in this area applying MCDA (multi-criteria decision-analysis). For the whole area, where 36 subwatersheds are delineated, the analysis of vulnerability to torrential flood occurrence is performed using fuzzy logic and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) method applied in the GIS environment. The risk of torrential flood is assessed by six decision-makers using the following criteria: Topographical Wetness Index (TWI), Rainfall (R), Soil erodibility (SE), Land use/Land cover (LU/LC), Drainage density (DD), and Population density (PD). The experts in the field of soil erosion and torrent control assigned the importance of each criterion using the triangular fuzzy number. The study area is classified into five categories of flood risk: very high, high, medium, low, and very low. High and medium risk categories occupy around 12% of the territory. The area at very high and high risk of torrential floods is located in all parts of the watershed. The upper part of the watershed is under the high risk of torrential flooding due to the presence of intensive agriculture production, while in the lower part, high drainage density and intensive rainfall cause significant vulnerability to torrential flood. This study presents the MCDA approach demonstrated with the case study that could be used to assess the risk of torrential flooding. |
