| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Runoff estimation is a essential activity in water resource management, and plays an great role in the best usage of a hydrologic system. Runoff estimation is usually based on different hydrological models. In this research was assessed the climate change in 2030-2050 periods with RCP scenarios that for this purpose were utilized of SS_EC-EARTH model in ardabil station. Climate change is effective on, river flow shortages, floods, and the declining water system that with predicting the climate change can perform fair management of water resources. The Balikhli chay Watershed with 1095 square kilometre area is located in Ardabil province. To assess the impact of these changes on the watershed outlet, SWAT hydrological model was used. The time horizon 1983-1994 was used in order to calibration and 1995-2018 for validation the model. Then, after ensuring the performance of the SWAT model, the downscaled climate change data were determined by the LARS-WG for each climate factors input to SWAT model runoff change in future periods were assessed. The climate model under RCP8.5 results showed that the annual minimum and maximum temperature will be increased 1.05 °C and 0.94°C respectively. The average annual rainfall for the study area will be increased at a rate of 11 percent. Compare current flow simulation represent that the peak flow for the future period will increase nevertheless the average flow discharge will increase in the amount of 100 percent. But this increase is accompanied by an increase in extreme phenomena such as floods and droughts. As the increase in runoff in winter was due to the change in the type of precipitation from snow to rain due to rising temperatures. In contrast, the decrease in runoff in summer was due to high temperatures and drought. Therefore the climate change should be considered in order to tackle with environmental hazards and Long-term planning. |
